Volume 12, Issue 2 (10-2024)
Ecol Iran For 2024, 12(2): 1-14 |
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Hamidi S K, Fallah A. (2024). Evaluation of the Performance of Climatic Scenarios in the Basal Area Model of Trees (Case Study: the Farim Forest). Ecol Iran For. 12(2), 1-14. doi:10.61186/ifej.12.2.1
URL: http://ifej.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-459-en.html
URL: http://ifej.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-459-en.html
1- Department, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
Abstract: (935 Views)
Extended Abstract
Background: Currently, forests are not only considered an economic pole but also a support for the survival of other sectors. For this reason, decision-making, as the core of management, is an inseparable part of the tasks of managers and planners in natural resource units. Forest management planning is an important decision-making tool in forestry. The result is a management plan that defines the expected activities, their timing, and their control to achieve the objectives of forest management in a forested area. However, climate change over time affects the biological and ecological conditions of plant communities. Considering the importance of sustainable development, it is necessary to pay attention to this issue to offer solutions to adapt to these changes and reduce the risks. Global climate change is increasing with the rise in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, as well as changes in precipitation. These changes also affect forest ecosystem services, growth, harvest patterns, and forest structure, posing new challenges to forest ecosystems. Predicting the future growth of forests and their performance under different scenarios is a key element in planning sustainable forest management. It is also essential to study and model the quantitative characteristics of forests to target the ecosystem toward desirable goals and implement conservation and restoration measures. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the basal area growth model of trees under climatic conditions for the next five decades.
Methods: This study was conducted in the Jojadeh section of the Farim Forest in Mazandaran Province. This section covers approximately 2803 hectares with elevations between 782 and 1750 m above sea level. The climate of the region was classified as humid according to the Ivanov method. The annual rainfall and average annual temperature are approximately 833 mm and
11 °C, respectively. Forest species include Fagus orientalis, Carpinus betulus, Alnus subcordata, Quercus castaneifolia, Acer velutinum and other species. In this study, circular fixed sample plots (1 are) were established and measured in the deciduous and uneven‑aged Farim forest. A 200 m × 150 m rectangular census was established in the forest. The diameter and tree species of all living trees with a diameter of more than 12.5 cm were measured with calipers. The basal areas of both the trees and thickest trees were two important competitive factors used as independent variables in this study. The trees measured at the beginning of the study period were re-measured and identified at the end of the study period (10 years later). Finally, the forest growth rate and growth model were calculated, analyzed, and modeled using the R software. The relationships between these factors were determined using the growth model of the basal area and the climatic information of the study area. Using the HadCM3 general circulation model data, three scenarios, A1B, A2, and B1, were used to program and analyze the relationship between the basal area growth and climate factors for the next 50 years.
Results: The basal area growth model has good accuracy, with a 94% correlation. In addition, the basal area, basal area of the thickest trees, and precipitation were the most important features in the growth changes at the sample plot level. The results of climate prediction for the next 50 years were analyzed separately by species. The results indicate that each scenario creates different conditions for each species, which is an important issue in forest management as each species depends on its biological conditions, and the habitat itself responds differently in the region. Because of the rise in temperature in the region, competition will increase among heliophyte species, and, to the same extent, sciophytes species will be rarely seen in the region in the future.
Conclusion: The results of this study can serve as a su itable tool to support management decisions and plans for the conservation and rehabilitation of Syrian forests in line with the effects of climate change. This is because the trend of climatic conditions indicates that torrential rains and floods will likely not increase significantly in Mazandaran province in the coming decades compared to the current and past situation while the temperature increase will take a faster pace. According to the results, the development of vegetation models for the tree basal area is strongly influenced by climatic variables, especially precipitation, which should be considered in forest management. Because climate change is regarded as one of the most important factors for tree growth, it is highly useful to carry out such studies to understand future changes in forest stands under the influence of this phenomenon and to apply them in the management and planning of forests and their management.
Background: Currently, forests are not only considered an economic pole but also a support for the survival of other sectors. For this reason, decision-making, as the core of management, is an inseparable part of the tasks of managers and planners in natural resource units. Forest management planning is an important decision-making tool in forestry. The result is a management plan that defines the expected activities, their timing, and their control to achieve the objectives of forest management in a forested area. However, climate change over time affects the biological and ecological conditions of plant communities. Considering the importance of sustainable development, it is necessary to pay attention to this issue to offer solutions to adapt to these changes and reduce the risks. Global climate change is increasing with the rise in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, as well as changes in precipitation. These changes also affect forest ecosystem services, growth, harvest patterns, and forest structure, posing new challenges to forest ecosystems. Predicting the future growth of forests and their performance under different scenarios is a key element in planning sustainable forest management. It is also essential to study and model the quantitative characteristics of forests to target the ecosystem toward desirable goals and implement conservation and restoration measures. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the basal area growth model of trees under climatic conditions for the next five decades.
Methods: This study was conducted in the Jojadeh section of the Farim Forest in Mazandaran Province. This section covers approximately 2803 hectares with elevations between 782 and 1750 m above sea level. The climate of the region was classified as humid according to the Ivanov method. The annual rainfall and average annual temperature are approximately 833 mm and
11 °C, respectively. Forest species include Fagus orientalis, Carpinus betulus, Alnus subcordata, Quercus castaneifolia, Acer velutinum and other species. In this study, circular fixed sample plots (1 are) were established and measured in the deciduous and uneven‑aged Farim forest. A 200 m × 150 m rectangular census was established in the forest. The diameter and tree species of all living trees with a diameter of more than 12.5 cm were measured with calipers. The basal areas of both the trees and thickest trees were two important competitive factors used as independent variables in this study. The trees measured at the beginning of the study period were re-measured and identified at the end of the study period (10 years later). Finally, the forest growth rate and growth model were calculated, analyzed, and modeled using the R software. The relationships between these factors were determined using the growth model of the basal area and the climatic information of the study area. Using the HadCM3 general circulation model data, three scenarios, A1B, A2, and B1, were used to program and analyze the relationship between the basal area growth and climate factors for the next 50 years.
Results: The basal area growth model has good accuracy, with a 94% correlation. In addition, the basal area, basal area of the thickest trees, and precipitation were the most important features in the growth changes at the sample plot level. The results of climate prediction for the next 50 years were analyzed separately by species. The results indicate that each scenario creates different conditions for each species, which is an important issue in forest management as each species depends on its biological conditions, and the habitat itself responds differently in the region. Because of the rise in temperature in the region, competition will increase among heliophyte species, and, to the same extent, sciophytes species will be rarely seen in the region in the future.
Conclusion: The results of this study can serve as a su itable tool to support management decisions and plans for the conservation and rehabilitation of Syrian forests in line with the effects of climate change. This is because the trend of climatic conditions indicates that torrential rains and floods will likely not increase significantly in Mazandaran province in the coming decades compared to the current and past situation while the temperature increase will take a faster pace. According to the results, the development of vegetation models for the tree basal area is strongly influenced by climatic variables, especially precipitation, which should be considered in forest management. Because climate change is regarded as one of the most important factors for tree growth, it is highly useful to carry out such studies to understand future changes in forest stands under the influence of this phenomenon and to apply them in the management and planning of forests and their management.
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