دوره 9، شماره 17 - ( بهار و تابستان 1400 )
جلد 9 شماره 17 صفحات 195-185 |
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eslami R, azarnoosh M, kialashaki A, kazemnejad F. (2021). Assessing the Probability of Forest Fire Occurring using Dong Model, Artificial Neural Network and K Nearest Neighbors in Babolrood Basin, Mazandaran. Ecol Iran For. 9(17), 185-195. doi:10.52547/ifej.9.17.185
URL: http://ifej.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-418-fa.html
URL: http://ifej.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-418-fa.html
اسلامی راحله، آذرنوش محمدرضا، کیالاشکی علی، کاظم نژاد فرید. ارزیابی احتمال وقوع آتش‌سوزی جنگل با استفاده از مدل دانگ، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و نزدیک‌ترین همسایه‌ها در حوزه بابلرود، مازندران بوم شناسی جنگل های ایران (علمی- پژوهشی) 1400; 9 (17) :195-185 10.52547/ifej.9.17.185
1- گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، واحد چالوس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، چالوس، ایران
چکیده: (3394 مشاهده)
آتش‌سوزی جنگل به عنوان یک تهدید مهم برای امنیت زندگی بشری، زیرساخت‌ها و محیط زیست شناخته می‌شود. یکی از مهم‌ترین مراحل در جهت کاهش خطرات آتش‌سوزی جنگل، تعیین مناطق با احتمال وقوع آتش‌سوزی در جنگل است. انتخاب روش‌های مناسب برای مدل‌سازی احتمال وقوع آتش‌سوزی جنگل بسیار مهم می‌باشد. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع در این مطالعه ابتدا با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و نظرات کارشناسان مهم‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر بر وقوع آتش‌سوزی در حوزه بابلرود در استان مازندران به عنوان منطقه مورد مطالعه تعیین شدند و سپس نتایج سه مدل دانگ، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی (ANN) و K نزدیک‌ترین همسایه‌ها (KNN) در تعیین نقشه احتمال وقوع آتش‌سوزی جنگل با هم مقایسه شد. نتایج نشان داد که مهم‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر بر وقوع آتش‌سوزی متغیرهای دما، بارندگی و فاصله از مناطق مسکونی هستند. همچنین نتایج شبکه عصبی مصنوعی نسبت به دو مدل دیگر قابل اطمینانتر است. براساس نتایج حاصله حدود 35 درصد از سطح منطقه مورد مطالعه دارای پتانسیل وقوع آتش‌سوزی طبقه خیلی زیاد و زیاد است.
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