fa شبیه سازی زمان و هزینه ساخت جاده های جنگلی با استفاده از آنالیز مونت کارلو تخصصي Special كاربردي Applicable <div style="text-align: justify;">&nbsp; <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">&nbsp;&nbsp;برآورد</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">زمان و هزینه پروژه، از موضوعات و چالش &shy;های پیش</span></span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">&shy;</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">روی کارفرمایان و پیمانکاران به‌ویژه در بخش جنگل می &shy;باشد. </span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">یکی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">از</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">کارآمدترین</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">ابزارهایی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">که</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">در</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">پیش</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">&shy;</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">بینی &shy;های</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">احتمالی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">و</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">آنالیز</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">ریسک</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">از آن</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">استفاده</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">می</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">&shy;</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">شود،</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">آنالیز</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">مونت</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">&shy;</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">کارلو</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">است</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">که</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">بر</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">اساس</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">تولید</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">اعداد</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">تصادفی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">مقدار</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">تک‌تک</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">اجزاء</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">یک</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">مجموعه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">را</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">محاسبه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">و</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">تأثیر</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">آن‌ها</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">را</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">بر</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">کل</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">مجموعه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">تعیین</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">می</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">&shy;</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">کند</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">. </span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">در</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">نگرش</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">سنتی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">به</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">کنترل</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">پروژه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">که</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">در</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">اکثر</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">پروژه</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">&shy;</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">های</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">ملی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">همچنان</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">حاکم</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">است،</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">برآورد</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">زمان</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">احتمالی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">و</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">بودجه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">احتمالی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">پروژه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">هنوز</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">برای مدیران</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">و</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">کارشناسان</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">تا حدودی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">ناشناخته</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">است</span></span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">.</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;"> در</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">این</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">پژوهش</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">تلاش شد</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">با</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">یک</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">مطالعه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">موردی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">و با</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">استفاده</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">از</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">قابلیت&shy;های</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">نرم&shy; افزاری (</span></span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;">Primavera Pertmaster</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">)، الگویی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">برای</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">در</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">نظر گرفتن</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">احتمال</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">و</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">ریسک</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">در</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">برآورد</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">زمان</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">معین</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">و</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">هزینه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">تکمیل</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">پروژه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">به&shy; صورت</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">کاربردی در مناطق جنگلی</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">ارائه</span></span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">شود</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">. </span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">نتایج توزیع احتمال هزینه نشان &shy;داد که احتمال دستیابی به بودجه پیش&shy; بینی ‌شده با توجه به شبیه‌سازی مونت‌کارلو در حدود 13 درصد بوده است. این در حالی است که اختلاف بین مقدار بیشینه و کمینه از 39 تا 65 میلیون تومان متغیر بوده است؛ که این نتیجه بیانگر ریسک بالای پروژه عملیات خاکی می&shy; باشد. 57 میلیون تومان هزینه واقعی در منطقه مورد مطالعه در نمودار توزیع هزینه، دارای احتمال برآورد 90 درصد بوده است؛ که این نتیجه نیز تأییدی بر ریسک&shy;زا بودن پروژه ساخت جاده دارد. </span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:2 Mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">درنهایت روش شبیه‌سازی مونت&shy;کارلو با پیش&shy; بینی موفق ریسک انجام پروژه عملیات خاکی نشان &shy;داد که راهکار مطمئنی پیش روی پیمانکاران و طراحان جاده&shy; های جنگلی به &shy;منظور مقابله با طبعات منفی پروژه وجود دارد. نتایج به &shy;دست آمده از این تحقیق می&shy;تواند به&shy; عنوان راهنمایی در مدیریت بهینه مناطق جنگلی بخصوص جاده &shy;های جنگلی در عملیات آینده استفاده گردد.</span></span></strong><br> &nbsp;<br> &nbsp;</div> <div style="text-align: justify;">&nbsp;<br> &nbsp;&nbsp; Project time and cost are one of the issues and challenges that employers and contractors are facing whit them especially in the forest area. One of the most effective tools that used in prediction and risk analysis is Monte Carlo analysis that Based on the production of random numbers, the number of single components of a set is computed and find out their effect on the whole set. In the traditional approach to project control that still dominates in most national projects, estimating the probable time and budget of the project is still unpredictable to managers and experts. In this work, we tried to present a model for considering the probability and risk in estimating the probability of completion of the project by given time and cost of project termination in a forest area using a case study and software capabilities (Primavera Pertmaster). The results of the probability distribution revealed that the probability of reaching the predicted budget was approximately 13% according to the Monte Carlo simulation. However, the difference between the maximum and minimum values varies from 39 to 650 million IRR, which results in a high risk of the operation of the land operations, which indicates the high risk of the earthwork operation. The real cost of earthwork (570 million IRR) in the study area at the cost allocation chart is estimated at 90%, which also confirms the riskiness of the road earthwork project. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation method, with the successful prediction of the risk of earthwork operation project, showed that there is an acceptable way for contractors and forest road designers to deal with the negative aspects of the project. The results of this research can be used as a guide to better management of forest for future operations.<br> &nbsp;</div> شبیه سازی, PERT, ریسک, عملیات خاکی, توزیع احتمالی Simulation, PERT, Risk, Earthwork Operation, Probability Distribution. 128 135 http://ifej.sanru.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-499-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 iman pazhouhan ایمان پژوهان imanpazhouhan@gmail.com 10031947532846006509 10031947532846006509 No Malayer University دانشگاه ملایر omid fathizadeh امید فتحی زاده omid.fathizadeh@yahoo.com 10031947532846006510 10031947532846006510 No University of Tabriz دانشگاه تبریز Abolghasem Kamkar Rouhani ابوالقاسم کامکار روحانی kamkarr@yahoo.com 10031947532846006511 10031947532846006511 No Shahrood University of Technology دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود javad vahidi جواد وحیدی jvahidi@iust.ac.ir 10031947532846006512 10031947532846006512 No University of Science and Technology دانشگاه علم وصنعت akbar najafi اکبر نجفی Najafi_akbar@yahoo.com 10031947532846006513 10031947532846006513 Yes Tarbiat Modares University دانشگاه تربیت مدرس